Climate Stakes U.S.

Issue #1: The climate stakes are 'too damn high' 🍏 

The big picture

Happy President’s Day week, a perfect time to launch a newsletter about climate and democracy in the United States. A month into the U.S. primary elections, when the two major parties select their candidates for the general election, world capitals are watching with varying degrees of nervous fascination at what is shaping up to be an almost certain rematch between Biden and Trump.

• “The Donald Trump-shaped shadow looming over Europe is stretching longer by the day," Nicholas Vinocur reported in Politico Europe’s Brussels Playbook. And that was before Trump’s latest NATO comments (see below).

• “For China, no matter who won the U.S. presidential election, they would be two ‘bowls of poison,’” said Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai (AP). Sinification sums up other views from China.

• “We would really welcome his presidency,” said Ugandan government spokesman Ofwono Opondo on Wednesday. “During Trump’s first term, American intervention in the world was really minimal.” More from Opondo in WSJ ($).

But what’s really happening across the U.S. and how is climate change shaping this critical election? These are the questions this newsletter will ask, fortnightly, through the election in November and beyond. So please subscribe and forward this email along if you find it useful.

Why stakes?

We are calling this newsletter Climate Stakes U.S. because the stakes are, indeed, too damn high (an obscure New York political reference 📽️). NYU journalism professor Jay Rosen has urged reporters to consider the stakes of elections, and not just the odds of winning them, and we aim to do that for the climate. As the year develops, we will look for high stakes moments and show where they do — or where they should — overlap with American politics. 

Clean energy investments — the “climate carrots” in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — represent major elements of both Biden climate policy and Biden’s reelection bid. But they are still slow to reach actual people (E&E News). California Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman: “It’s one of the reasons why I was so frustrated the DOE took so long to stand up its heat pump incentives — the rebates — because now people aren’t going to have a chance to get those rebates before the election.”

Incidentally, U.S. clean energy incentives — dubbed bottomless mimosas by one pundit — are rising, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report. Increased tax credit demand for electric vehicles (EVs), battery manufacturing, wind and solar projects, etc., is now estimated to add $428 billion to deficits over the next decade (The Hill) — combined with projected lower gas tax revenues.

South Carolina GOP primary

South Carolina (Feb 24 GOP primary) preferred Trump by 12 points in 2020 and has voted for a Republican president in all but one presidential race since 1964. Democrats held their primary there earlier this month, moving the state ballot before the Iowa caucus for the first time to better represent the Democratic base — namely, Black voters. Biden won with barely any opposition.

In South Carolina, the Biden admin takes credit for over $11.8 billion in new clean energy investment announcements and over 12,000 potential jobs, including at Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and BMW EV assembly plants, multiple large battery manufacturers, and solar panel and heat pump makers.

Trump faces South Carolina native Nikki Haley, his sole remaining GOP contender, in the primary. Haley has focused her campaigning on the state, though Trump still dominates all polls. Both Haley and Trump are running on undoing the Biden climate and clean energy efforts, promising to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. Haley, as Trump’s ambassador to the UN, pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Accord in 2017. 

Still they have their differences. After Trump told a cheering crowd recently that he would not protect Europe and that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want,” Haley responded that this comment “should send a chill up everyone’s spine.”

Michigan primaries 

Michigan (Feb 27 primaries) is a true swing state (voted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020) with a Democratic governor that passed a 100% clean energy by 2040 commitment at the end of last year. According to the Biden admin, the state — a long-time auto industry stronghold — has seen $20.4 billion in clean energy announcements, amounting to 19,000 jobs, including new Qcells, Rivian, Hyundai and Kia plants. Michigan has the second highest clean energy announcements after Georgia. 

Michigan is also home to one of the largest Arab populations in the U.S., including a large Palestinian community. Rather than checking Biden’s name, there is a strong campaign to write “uncommitted” on their Democratic ballots, because of his ongoing support for the Israeli assault on Gaza.

Information integrity (disinfo)

The World Economic Forum names misinformation and disinformation as the top global risk in the short term (next two years), followed by extreme weather events driven by climate change. On the 10-year horizon, extreme weather is the top global risk, followed by more climate risks, with misinfo/disinfo ranked the #5 top risk. 

Voters’ climate game (polling)

Justin Worland in Time asks if democracy is even good for climate: “Climate change, as urgent as the scientific reality may be, feels less urgent to voters than their economic challenges. And elected officials respond to that to win elections.” 

But a new study from the University of Colorado finds that climate change actually weighed heavily in the 2016 and 2020 elections, even if it was not top of mind for voters: 

And Yale, as always, has the maps. 

Trailing thoughts

Question for you: As you watch American politics unfold this year, what is the climate issue that holds the highest stakes for you? Are you worried about extreme weather and our ability to rebound? Are you an EV or electric bus person? Are you worried about U.S. climate finance commitments? Are you just worried? Let us know! 

A word about us: This newsletter comes from the Global Strategic Communications Council. GSCC is a global network of communications professionals in the field of climate and energy. The views expressed in quotes in this newsletter are those of the people making the comments and not necessarily those of GSCC, and they are presented as a service in the interest of informing the public. GSCC does not endorse candidates.

This edition written by Nate.