Election Day (and the climate crisis) are here

American voters go to polls in hottest year ever

November 05, 2024

Polling station sign door

Issue #10: The American climate vote

In this edition

  • It’s Election Day across the U.S.

  • International capitals are bracing, planning for new U.S. administration climate policy

  • Voters remain motivated by climate impacts and environmental issues

The big picture

As Americans go to the polls Tuesday — many have already voted early — the toll of climate disasters is stark: The 10 worst climate disasters in the past 20 years, made worse by fossil fuel companies, have killed half a million people (NYT $): “Many people now understand that climate change is already making life more dangerous… What did not work yet is turning knowledge into action on a large-enough scale,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution.

With this knowledge, voters are choosing between former President Donald Trump, who told a Lititz, Pennsylvania audience just three days before Election Day that climate change is not real because it was chilly outside that day, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who continues to call climate change an “existential threat.” 

New York Times climate writer Lisa Friedman has a campaign closer on the two candidates’ climate positions, with very straightforward reporting: 

“The window is closing for nations to reduce enough of the pollution that is heating the planet to avoid the most dangerous levels of climate change, according to scientists across the world. And the outcome of next week’s presidential election could determine whether the United States and other countries meet that challenge.”

Climate impacts have forced the question of whether or not this is a climate election, and voters are noticing. A recent poll by Climate Cabinet showed that in three hurricane-ravaged states (Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia), 32% of voters say Hurricanes Milton and Helene have made climate a more important issue for them in the upcoming U.S. elections, 4% higher than the national average. 

"Voters are feeling the impacts of climate change – in their lives, communities, and pocketbooks – and they are ready for change," said Caroline Spears, Executive Director of Climate Cabinet. "Climate change is fueling extreme weather across the country – from hurricanes to floods, droughts, and wildfires. It's critical for all candidates and elected leaders to make climate a Day 1 priority."

Margaret Renkl writing for the New York Times says, “Where planetary survival is concerned, it is too late to sit out an election on principle, or to cast a vote for a third-party candidate.”

Bloomberg NEF covered the stickiness of US clean energy fiscal policy, concluding that it will “muddle through”: 

“Whoever wins, US energy policy, and US cleantech sectors, will do what they always do: muddle through. Trump could deal the energy transition a blow, but he can’t stop or reverse it any more than he could during his first term. Harris, meanwhile, will need to make political compromises that will likely keep US climate and energy policy far behind what it needs to meet the country’s net-zero goals.”

The NYT also covered the stickiness of the Inflation Reduction Act renewable and clean energy incentives. “This is about energy independence, right? It’s about energy security,” said KORE Power president Jay Bellows, who is optimistic that his Buckeye, Arizona battery plant will move forward regardless of who is elected. “This is one topic that both sides can get behind.”

On the international front, Australian climate minister Chris Bowen told The Guardian: “Will the dynamics of Cop be different depending on who’s president? Of course they will. But does the rest of the world just walk away if the United States president is Donald Trump? No.”

What’s really happening across the U.S. and how is climate change shaping this critical election? These are the questions this newsletter will ask, fortnightly, through the election in November and beyond. So please subscribe and forward this email along if you find it useful.

Next up in U.S. electionland

  • November 5: Election Day.

  • November 11: COP29 starts in Baku, Azerbaijan.

  • November 18: G20 meeting starts in Rio de Janeiro.

  • December 17: The U.S. Electoral College casts its vote.

  • January 6, 2025: Congress counts Electoral College votes.

  • January 20, 2025: U.S. Inauguration Day.

Go deeper

Heatmap gets into details on winning a COP29 deal, no matter who the US president-elect is, with solid analysis on the US position on climate finance, national climate targets, and who pays.

Here’s an example of state action: 10 states, led by New York and California, are urging the US to take a stronger position on the global plastics treaty (Reuters) in the lead up to the next round of negotiations in South Korea:

“Ten states on Friday called on the U.S. government to go beyond backing production caps in a global plastic treaty, and support a pact that rejects ‘false’ solutions like forms of recycling and protects [sic] communities burdened by plastic production.”

Trump asked oil and gas owners to fund his campaign with $1 billion. He’s gotten about $75 million, which Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat, characterizes as an investment to protect their oil and gas tax subsidies (NYT): “To protect a $700 billion subsidy, what is the amount that would be economically reasonable to spend in its defense?” 

But, also, Reuters found at least seven of Trump's close allies hold hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of stakes in companies that are significant beneficiaries of the tax breaks embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden's signature climate law, including Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, his former ambassador to China, and companies run by energy advisors.

Electric vehicles

CNBC looked at auto industry takes in the election, including labor, EVs, and tariffs, especially in the crucial swing state of Michigan: 

“Michigan’s 16 electoral votes have helped thrust Autos into the debate. Between Trump’s hyperactive and contradictory statements and Harris’ quieter views lay deep differences but also convergence,” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note last week.

Related: In areas where Donald Trump won a majority in 2020, the average potential annual fuel savings from switching to an EV is $1,383, compared to $1,146 in Biden-majority areas, per latest Coltura report. Also, GM is about to turn a profit on EVs (NYT).

Renewable energy

The FT ($) games out the races for the renewable energy industry: “A recent Goldman Sachs analysis of market outcomes concluded renewables could be the biggest winner under Harris, and tied for biggest loser under Trump, along with tariff-sensitive sectors.” 

A regional roundup

  • Kenya: The East African says the U.S.-Kenya relationship will remain strong, but Olabisi D. Akinkugbe, an expert in trade, says African negotiators will have to remain strong on socioeconomic and sustainability interests should Trump win. 

  • China: Senior Beijing climate change official Xia Yingxian tells the South China Morning Post that he hopes the U.S. “will continue to work with other nations to implement [the] Paris Agreement,” regardless of the election outcome. Also, clean energy supply chains are popping up, out of the reach of growing US tariffs: “Meanwhile, in nearby Indonesia and Laos, a slew of new Chinese-owned solar plants are popping up, out of the reach of Washington's trade protections. Their planned capacity is enough to supply about half the panels installed in the U.S. last year, Reuters reporting shows.” 

  • India: Many questions around trade, competition with China, and economic blocks are on the minds of Indian officials, says The Indian Express.

  • Europe: Some implications of the election for Europe here, via Strategic Perspectives. 

  • US swing states: In the Detroit Free Press it’s a toss-up; in the red state of Iowa a surprise poll has Harris up; the Philadelphia Enquirer has Pennsylvania in a dead heat; and in Milwaukee, Wisconsin there are long lines to vote.

Down ballot races

A few good election reads/sources

  • Covering Climate Now writes on truth telling journalism: “But there is nothing wrong with being on the side of a livable planet. That requires standing up for truth, no matter how much that stance offends people who would prefer a more docile approach.”

  • Bloomberg writes on U.S. and other oil states attempting climate leadership: “No country can show up to the international stage and claim to be a climate leader while continuing massive fossil fuel expansion back at home,” said Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, which works with member states at COP meetings. “The US is the most significant culprit, but there are many other countries embedded in this kind of hypocrisy.”

Information integrity (disinfo)

Among the top donors to Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC is coal baron Joe Craft, Heated reveals. Musk, who appears to have altered X’s algorithm to favor Trump (Independent), is also facing legal challenges to a $1 million prize he’s offered to voters in Pennsylvania, though a judge allowed the contest to continue through Election Day (MSNBC).

Also check out FWIW’s overview of “digital deceptions” during the final week of campaigning: “advertising campaigns aiming to confuse or deceive voters – or, at least, conceal their true intentions. This year is no different: in the past week, we’ve identified a handful of shady advertisers – mostly on the Right – trying to influence voters while hiding their real partisan motives.” 

Voters’ climate game (polling, etc.) 

According to the Environmental Voter Project, tens of thousands of climate-conscious voters who didn't show up in 2020 had already cast their ballots before Election Day (Grist). As for billionaires, the Independent (UK) says more billionaires are backing Harris than Trump, but Trump’s billionaires are giving him larger amounts.

#FYP substack has compiled a rundown of the final week of campaigning on Tik Tok, where Trump continues to get more mentions, but Harris is getting more positive mentions.

According to E&E News, 75% of $15.5 million spent nationally as of mid-October on EV-related messaging in this election cycle is negative, two-thirds of it in the State of Michigan.

“People interviewed in the Detroit suburbs and in Flint in September had little to no awareness of electric vehicles as a political issue. Most didn’t know that Trump has long raised doubts about them, or that one of the Biden administration’s biggest accomplishments was legislation that promoted them — the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.”

Finally, WABE radio has a story on campaign volunteer efforts in swing states, with 40,000 volunteers working for Harris and 25,000 volunteers working for Trump. 

Trailing thoughts

Question for you: As you watch American politics unfold this year, what is the climate issue that holds the highest stakes for you? Are you worried about extreme weather and our ability to rebound? Are you an EV or electric bus person? Are you worried about U.S. climate finance commitments? Are you just worried? Let us know! 

Why stakes? We are calling this newsletter Climate Stakes U.S. because the stakes are, indeed, too high. NYU journalism professor Jay Rosen has urged reporters to consider the stakes of elections, and not just the odds of winning them, and we aim to do that for the climate. As the year develops, we will look for high stakes moments and show where they do — or where they should — overlap with American politics. 

GSCC is a global network of communications professionals in the field of climate and energy. The views expressed in quotes in this newsletter are those of the people making the comments and not necessarily those of GSCC, and they are presented as a service in the interest of informing the public. GSCC does not endorse candidates.

This edition was written by Nate.