Final week of campaigning

Issue #9: Closing arguments

In this edition

• From U.S. election to COP29: Whither multilateralism?

• Do climate impacts impact voters? 

• Global South passing renewables tipping point

The big picture

The annual UN climate conference, COP29, starts in Baku, Azerbaijan just six days after the U.S. election. Grist’s list of climate stakes in the closing weeks of the campaign includes questions about former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’ commitment to global climate cooperation — reminding readers that Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement during his first term. 

This year’s pre-COP emissions gap report (The Hill) shows that countries, including the U.S., are not meeting timelines to reduce carbon emissions — and that without additional climate actions, they won’t meet those goals — global cooperation or no cooperation.

Trump and Harris stances on climate change are worth considering again in that light alone. Among the latest takes: Scientific American weighs in with a story on the climate stakes of Trump vs. Harris, relying on the Energy Innovation modeling of the Project 2025 scenario vs. current policy and more ambitious climate leadership. 

A Data for Progress poll finds that after Hurricane Helene, voters want the U.S. to expand disaster relief, with Georgia voters feeling more climate concerned in its wake (Atlanta Journal Constitution). One voter said: “I might not have a college degree, but I’m not dense. Of course, man-made climate change is absolutely real, it’s devastating, and I think we consistently feel its impact.” Grist called the dual super storms that hit the U.S. during peak election season an “October surprise” driving voter concerns about climate change.

In Florida, the clear link between climate change and massive storms needs more attention (Miami Herald), with Politico finding hurricanes are not moving Republicans much on climate change.

The entire climate world has been in Colombia the past two weeks working out a deal to save nature — the whole world except for the U.S., that is (Vox). But California, one of 36 global biodiversity hotspots, has adopted the UN biodiversity body’s 30x30 target and committed over $100 million to the Tribal Nature-Based Solutions Program to fund tribal priorities for the protection and restoration of nature. The LA Times interviewed Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot in Cali:

Finally, Neal K. Kaytal at Georgetown University Law Center penned an alarming primer in the New York Times ($) on handling any kind of election results crisis following Election Day on November 5: 

What’s really happening across the U.S. and how is climate change shaping this critical election? These are the questions this newsletter will ask, fortnightly, through the election in November and beyond. So please subscribe and forward this email along if you find it useful.

At the recent World Bank/IMF meeting in Washington, D.C., IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath warned that Trump’s tariff pronouncements could cost the world GDP close to 7% (BBC). "These are very large numbers, 7% is basically losing the French and German economies. That's the size of the loss that would be," she said. Politico adds that countries including Kenya and Barbados are concerned about both candidates’ moves to ingrain protectionism in the U.S. economy, while Bloomberg has: “US election seen as global risk alongside wars and inflation.”

Still, a report from RMI shows that 61% of Global South countries have passed the renewable energy “tipping point” (>5% share of electricity generation) — 87% of capital expenditures on electricity generation will go into clean energy, and one-fifth of Global South countries (including Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, etc.) have overtaken the Global North in share of renewables.  

Meanwhile, EU officials are meeting with European ambassadors to discuss concerns for Ukraine, but also climate and trade risks, ahead of a possible Trump re-election: “The meetings come amid reports the bloc has set up a rapid reaction force to prepare for the fallout of the elections, colloquially known as the ‘Trump task force.’ The EU wants to hit back hard on trade if Trump wins.”

But Biden National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan asserted that U.S. industrial policy both protects U.S. supply chains and empowers U.S. allies. “President Biden implemented a modern industrial strategy, one premised on investing at home in ourselves and our national strength, and on shifting the energies of U.S. foreign policy to help our partners around the world do the same,” Sullivan said in a recent speech. 

Camila Thorndike, climate engagement director for the Harris campaign, told Politico Pro ($) that recent hurricanes are motivating voters:

Several potential cabinet picks have been floated for Trump (E&E News), including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a fellow anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist who recently dropped his own White House bid, for Health and Human Services or potentially EPA. Also North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, once considered a Trump VP pick, for Department of Energy. 

The plastics industry has its own wishlist for a second Trump term (ProPublica): “Plastic production was responsible for roughly 5% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 — the very thing driving climate change and severe flooding. The industry’s emissions could double or triple by 2050.” Other oil and gas interests also have their Trump wishlists (The Washington Post ($)), after giving record amounts to congressional GOP super PACs — $20 million this cycle, according to Sludge, via FEC filings.

Information integrity (disinfo)

NBC News has a deep dive on how Russian disinformation is reaching the U.S. ahead of the 2024 election: “The Storm-1516 campaigns rely on faked primary sources – audio, video, photos, documents – presented as evidence of the claims’ veracity. They are then laundered through international news sources and influencers to reach their ultimate target: a mainstream Western audience.”

CNN reports on the ways Republicans pushed X (Twitter), YouTube, Instagram and Facebook to stop fighting election disinformation.

Musk's pledged voter payments are probably illegal, according to CNN, and aren't happening in a vacuum. In Moldova, the BBC reported payments to voters originating in Moscow during a narrow, pro-EU referendum vote.

Open Secrets details how an Elon Musk-funded dark money group is tied to an ad campaign purporting to be pro-Harris, but that is designed to turn voters against her through a fake progressive agenda it has cynically called “Progress 2028,” echoing the right’s own “Project 2025.” 

Energy Wire at Politico ($) fact-checked Trump for claiming solar farms can harm bunny rabbits, and other false claims.

Trailing thoughts

Question for you: As you watch American politics unfold this year, what is the climate issue that holds the highest stakes for you? Are you worried about extreme weather and our ability to rebound? Are you an EV or electric bus person? Are you worried about U.S. climate finance commitments? Are you just worried? Let us know! 

Why stakes? We are calling this newsletter Climate Stakes U.S. because the stakes are, indeed, too high. NYU journalism professor Jay Rosen has urged reporters to consider the stakes of elections, and not just the odds of winning them, and we aim to do that for the climate. As the year develops, we will look for high stakes moments and show where they do — or where they should — overlap with American politics. 

GSCC is a global network of communications professionals in the field of climate and energy. The views expressed in quotes in this newsletter are those of the people making the comments and not necessarily those of GSCC, and they are presented as a service in the interest of informing the public. GSCC does not endorse candidates.

This edition was written by Nate.